Theory of Change

What a theory of change is

Serious institutions do not merely act. They explain, in advance and in a diagram, why the acting will work. A theory of change is that explanation, and the Foundation’s has been approved at every level of the organization that approves things. It links what we do to what happens, in six stages, each flowing into the next in an order the Foundation selected carefully and has defended since.

The causal chain

1. Awareness. A person learns that the Sun is dying. Timeline aside, this is accurate, and accuracy is where responsibility begins.
2. Concern. Awareness matures into concern, typically within days. Concern is measurable, and the Foundation measures it, and reports the measurements, which generates further awareness, reinforcing stage one.
3. Commitment. The concerned make a commitment. A commitment costs nothing to record and is recorded at no cost, and each one is filed under momentum.
4. Frameworks. Commitments are aggregated into frameworks, the load bearing documents through which individual intent becomes institutional structure.
5. Meetings. Frameworks require alignment, and alignment occurs in meetings. Fourteen stakeholder meetings have been convened to date, and every question raised in them has been resolved, referred, or scheduled, the three outcomes the Foundation recognizes.
6. Sunrise. The following morning, the Sun rises. It has done so after every completed chain, 365 consecutive times, without a single exception on record.

On the question of audits

The Foundation has been invited to submit its theory of change for independent causal audit, and has declined, respectfully and in writing. Our reasoning is a matter of stewardship. The chain currently performs at a 100 percent completion rate, and prudent institutions do not disassemble machinery that is running. Auditors examine links, and links are precisely what one does not pull on. The board instead ratified an internal review, conducted by the office the theory describes, which found the theory sound and the office essential.

What the chain has delivered

Since the theory was adopted, sunrise has followed the completion of the chain every single time. The Foundation notes the correlation and, on the advice of counsel, notes it a second time. The Moon, which operates without any published theory of change, is invited to reflect on the difference. Nighttime interests have called the chain unfalsifiable, a term the Foundation accepts as a description of its durability. Tradition holds that what has always worked should be continued, and the chain has always worked, and so it is continued.

Your place in the chain

Every supporter enters at stage one and is welcome to advance at a pace consistent with their concern. The chain has room, because it was designed with room, in anticipation of a fully aware public. The final stage belongs to everyone. It arrives on schedule, asks for nothing, and has never once needed us, which is exactly why it must never find out.